Thursday, February 8, 2007

Crystal Ball Says...


Just recieved the latest installment of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball .

For what we think is the best political analysis in the country - and totally un-biased subscribe to the Cyrstal Ball.

From the latest edition....

Scheduling Insanity
Why we are courting disaster in next year's presidential primaries

In 1968 the country had 14 state presidential primaries, scheduled rather sensibly and intermittently between March and June. In 2008 a minimum of 42 primaries will be held, possibly as many as 47, beginning in January, or even earlier, and stretching out for six long months.

Even worse, the '08 schedule will be the most "front-loaded" ever, with so many contests moved into January and early February that the party nominees might be determined in the blink of an eye, with no chance for "buyer's remorse." In 1980 only one state had a primary or caucus by the end of February. By 2000 nine states did so, and in 2004, nineteen. Next year, an incredible thirty states are on track to push into January or February.

If the job of scheduling the presidential nominating contests were assigned to an insane asylum, this is pretty much what the patients would come up with.

Reform is much needed, but it isn't going to happen for 2008. The system is out of control, and no entity with a national perspective is in charge--not the Congress, not the political parties. Individual states are ruling the roost, doing what they think is in their interests. The national interest is barely an afterthought.

Here is the current tentative schedule for 2008, with emphasis on the word tentative:

Date States with Primaries/Caucuses
January 14th Iowa caucuses
January 19th Nevada Democratic caucuses
January 22nd New Hampshire primary, Wyoming Republican county conventions (POSSIBLY)
January 29th South Carolina Democratic primary, South Dakota primary (POSSIBLY), Florida primary (POSSIBLY)
February 2nd South Carolina Republican primary, Oklahoma primary (POSSIBLY)
February 5th Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California (POSSIBLY), Delaware, Florida (POSSIBLY), Idaho (POSSIBLY), Illinois (POSSIBLY), Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey (POSSIBLY), New Mexico, North Carolina, Utah primaries; Nevada Republican primary; North Dakota caucuses
February 9th Louisiana Republican primary (POSSIBLY)
February 10th Maine Democratic caucuses
February 12th Tennessee, Virginia primaries
February 19th Wisconsin primary
February 26th Hawaii Democratic caucuses
March 2nd Hawaii Republican caucuses
March 4th Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont primaries; Minnesota caucuses
March 7th Colorado Democratic primary
March 11th Mississippi, Pennsylvania primaries
March 8th Wyoming Democratic caucuses (POSSIBLY)
March 11th Washington Republican primary
March 15th Alaska Democratic caucuses
March 21st Maine Republican caucuses
April 1st Kansas primary
April 15th Colorado Republican primary
May 6th Indiana primary
May 13th Nebraska, West Virginia primaries
May 20th Kentucky, Oregon primaries
May 27th Washington Democratic primary

Read more..........